The Ethno-Political Manipulation Theory (EPMT)
Korie, M. (2025)
Journal of Connected Knowledge, Vol. [1], Issue 3
Abstract
This article introduces and tests the Ethno-Political Manipulation Theory (EPMT), a framework for understanding power consolidation in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. The EPMT posits that in a context of weak institutional accountability and a fragile democratic culture, Nigeria’s political elite deliberately weaponize ethnic divisions, hate speech, and state power to maintain dominance. By mobilizing tribal sentiments and exploiting historical grievances, they distract from governance failures and suppress opposition. Through a detailed analysis of the theory’s core factors—political rascality, the instrumentalization of the Yoruba-Igbo rivalry, government-sponsored hate speech, judicial complicity, and state-sponsored violence—this study argues that these are not random acts but components of a repeatable “Ethnic Polarization Cycle.” Using the “Lagos Igbo Question,” particularly during the 2023 election cycle, as a primary case study, the article validates the EPMT’s central hypothesis: periods of political competition correlate with a marked increase in ethnically targeted hate speech, economic sabotage, and selective law enforcement. The findings demonstrate that this strategy systematically erodes democratic norms, deepens ethnic polarization, and inflicts significant economic and reputational damage on the nation. The article concludes by discussing the implications of the EPMT for democratic consolidation in Nigeria and other ethnically plural societies.
1. Introduction: Theorizing Elite Power and Ethnic Division in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic
Since its return to civilian rule in 1999, Nigeria’s Fourth Republic has presented a persistent puzzle. Despite more than two decades of uninterrupted democratic government, the longest in its history, the nation’s democratic institutions remain fragile and its political culture underdeveloped. Rather than consolidating, Nigeria’s democracy appears to be in a state of fluctuation, characterized by a “rivalrous, corrupt oligarchy” and a widening chasm between government performance and the needs of a burgeoning population. This has engendered a deep-seated public disillusionment, reflected in declining satisfaction with democracy and plummeting electoral participation. The 2023 general election, for instance, recorded the lowest voter turnout of the Fourth Republic at just 26.72%, with the winner securing the presidency with the votes of less than 10% of registered voters. This environment of institutional weakness and popular apathy creates fertile ground for manipulative political strategies.
This article introduces the Ethno-Political Manipulation Theory (EPMT) as a framework to explain this paradox. The EPMT argues that ethnic polarization is not merely an unfortunate byproduct of political competition but a deliberate and instrumental governance strategy. It posits that Nigeria’s political elite, facing weak accountability mechanisms, systematically weaponize ethnic identity to maintain and consolidate power. This approach moves beyond viewing ethnicity as a static, primordial cleavage, instead framing it as a dynamic political resource that is actively mobilized and exploited by elite actors to achieve specific political ends. By stoking inter-group fear and rivalry, elites can distract from their failures in governance, delegitimize opposition, and mobilize a core ethnic base sufficient to win elections in a climate of widespread voter apathy.
The strategic deployment of ethnic manipulation appears to fuel a self-perpetuating cycle of democratic decay. The elite’s use of divisive tactics to obscure poor governance is a primary driver of the citizen dissatisfaction and disillusionment documented in recent surveys. This widespread apathy, manifesting as low voter turnout, in turn lowers the threshold for electoral victory. Consequently, mobilizing a passionate, identity-driven minority becomes a more efficient path to power than building a broad, issue-based coalition across a skeptical and disengaged electorate. The very consequences of ethno-political manipulation—a fatigued and fractured citizenry—thus create the ideal conditions for its continued and successful application.
This study tests the EPMT’s central hypothesis: “In Nigeria, periods of political competition increase the frequency of ethnically targeted hate speech, economic sabotage, and selective law enforcement, with Igbos in Lagos serving as a primary case study of this phenomenon.” The article proceeds in seven parts. It first examines the historical and political-economic context of ethnic competition in Nigeria. It then formally outlines the EPMT framework and deconstructs its core instruments of manipulation. Subsequently, it provides an empirical validation of the theory through a detailed case study of the “Lagos Igbo Question” during the 2023 elections. The article then models the “Ethnic Polarization Cycle” as the repeatable mechanism driving this strategy, analyzes its devastating consequences for the nation, and concludes with the theory’s implications for Nigeria’s political future.
2. The Political Economy of Ethnic Competition: A Legacy of Elite Manipulation
The structural foundations for the Ethno-Political Manipulation Theory are not a recent phenomenon but are deeply embedded in Nigeria’s political history, originating from the architecture of the colonial state. The 1914 amalgamation of the Northern and Southern Protectorates was an act of administrative and economic convenience for the British, forcing disparate and often rivalrous ethnic nationalities into a single political entity without their consent. Subsequent colonial policies actively promoted regionalism, creating three powerful regions dominated by the three largest ethnic groups: the Hausa-Fulani in the North, the Yoruba in the West, and the Igbo in the East. This structure institutionalized a zero-sum competition for power and resources among ethnic elites, transforming the political landscape into a “contest for power and resources” fought from “ethnic platforms”. It was within this colonial urban context that ethnic groups first acquired a common, competitive consciousness, laying the groundwork for the politicization of identity.
Following independence in 1960, this dynamic intensified. The state became the primary avenue for capital accumulation, and control of political office was seen as the surest means for ethnic elites to channel national resources to their in-groups while excluding rivals. This “search for petty bourgeois and comprador bourgeois fortunes dominated the struggle for power,” leading to the regionalization of politics and the formalization of ethnic competition. The first major political parties—the Northern People’s Congress (NPC), the Action Group (AG), and the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC)—were established along these ethno-regional lines, with elites openly using “emotive ethnic symbols” and historical grievances to mobilize voters.
This historical context gave rise to a political system that scholars have characterized through various lenses. The EPMT builds upon foundational works such as Okwudiba Nnoli’s analysis of the instrumentalization of ethnicity for socio-economic competition , Richard Joseph’s theory of prebendalism, where state offices are treated as personal fiefdoms for the benefit of officeholders and their clients , and Wale Adebanwi’s study of the crucial role of elite agency in constructing and shaping modern ethnic politics. The EPMT contributes to this literature by synthesizing these concepts into a dynamic model that explains the
cyclical and deliberate weaponization of identity as a function of the electoral calendar and weak institutional constraints.
Ironically, the very mechanisms designed to mitigate ethnic conflict have often been co-opted as instruments of manipulation. Policies such as the Federal Character principle, which mandates ethnic representation in public appointments, and the creation of new states to satisfy minority agitations, have inadvertently reinforced the primacy of ethnic identity in politics. While intended to foster inclusion, these measures have been perverted by the political elite. State creation, for example, has been described as an “arbitrary multiplication of federation units” that has become a “source of tension”. Rather than promoting national unity, these balancing mechanisms provide a formal, legitimate language for elites to frame political competition in ethnic terms. A political loss can be easily reframed as a violation of the Federal Character principle or an act of ethnic marginalization, weaponizing a policy of inclusion for divisive ends. These institutional “solutions” have thus become part of the problem, providing a formal structure for the very elite manipulation that the EPMT describes.
3. The Ethno-Political Manipulation Theory (EPMT): A Framework for Analysis
The Ethno-Political Manipulation Theory (EPMT) is formally defined as a political strategy wherein the ruling elite, constrained by weak democratic institutions and a lack of performance legitimacy, systematically and cyclically deploys ethnic identity as a primary tool for political mobilization, opposition suppression, and power retention. The theory’s core logic rests on two pillars: distraction and consolidation. In the face of widespread public discontent over governance failures—including endemic corruption, pervasive insecurity, and economic stagnation—the elite strategically pivot the public discourse away from their performance and toward identity-based threats.
By framing political contests not as a referendum on their stewardship but as an existential struggle between ethnic groups, they achieve several objectives simultaneously. First, they consolidate their own ethnic base, mobilizing voters through fear and primordial loyalty rather than a record of achievement. Second, they delegitimize all political opposition by casting it as a hostile ethnic agenda, effectively insulating themselves from substantive critique. Dissent is no longer a matter of policy disagreement but is portrayed as an act of tribal betrayal. This strategy is particularly effective in a political environment characterized by clientelism, where socio-economic benefits are perceived to flow only when one’s “own men” are in power.
To operationalize this framework for empirical analysis, the EPMT’s central hypothesis is broken down into its constituent parts. The theory predicts that periods of heightened political competition, such as general elections, will directly correlate with a measurable increase in:
- Ethnically targeted hate speech by state actors and their surrogates.
- State-sponsored or condoned economic sabotage against communities perceived as politically disloyal.
- Selective and partisan law enforcement that protects perpetrators from the ruling group while targeting opponents.
The following sections will deconstruct the specific instruments used to execute this strategy before validating the hypothesis through a focused case study.
4. Instruments of Manipulation: Deconstructing the EPMT’s Core Factors
The EPMT is not executed through a single action but through a coordinated deployment of several instruments of manipulation. These factors work in concert to create a political environment where ethnic identity supersedes all other considerations. The operational infrastructure for deploying these instruments is often found in the pervasive system of political “godfatherism,” a form of neo-patrimonialism where powerful patrons control political outcomes through a network of loyal protégés. The tools of EPMT—rascality, hate speech, judicial influence, and violence—are the standard methods in the godfather’s playbook, providing the concrete means by which the abstract strategy of ethnic polarization is executed.
4.1. Political Rascality and the Normalization of Impunity
A foundational element of the EPMT is “political rascality,” defined as the willful, public, and brazen disregard for democratic norms, rules, and ethics in the pursuit of political advantage. This manifests in the open issuance of threats and inflammatory statements by public officials, as well as the flagrant abuse of state power, all of which occur without legal or political consequence. This behavior is emblematic of the culture of impunity fostered by godfatherism, where powerful political figures and their allies act as if they are above the law, shielded from accountability by their influence and networks.
The purpose of such public displays of impunity is twofold. First, it creates a climate of fear, intimidating opposition groups and discouraging dissent among the general populace. Second, it serves as a powerful signal of dominance, demonstrating that the informal rules of raw power supersede the formal rules of democracy. When elites engage in such conduct without sanction, it normalizes lawlessness and reinforces the perception that resistance is futile, thereby weakening the foundations of democratic accountability.
4.2. The Instrumentalization of Historical Grievances: The Yoruba-Igbo “Cold Tribal War”
The EPMT posits that historical grievances are not merely passive elements of a nation’s past but are an active political resource to be exploited. The simmering rivalry between the Yoruba and Igbo peoples serves as a prime example. This tension has deep historical roots, tracing back to the competition between their preeminent nationalist leaders, Obafemi Awolowo and Nnamdi Azikiwe, during the colonial era. Events such as the contentious 1951 Western House of Assembly election, where political maneuvering prevented Azikiwe from becoming premier, solidified early mistrust. This was profoundly exacerbated by the Nigerian Civil War (1967-1970), which left many Igbos with a lasting sense of betrayal, injustice, and political marginalization, particularly regarding Awolowo’s role as the federal finance minister.
During election cycles, political actors deliberately revive these historical wounds. They re-frame contemporary political contests as the latest chapter in this long-standing ethnic struggle, effectively polarizing the electorate. A contest for the governorship of Lagos, for example, is transformed into a battle for the soul of the Yoruba homeland against perceived Igbo encroachment. This strategy reduces the space for issue-based debate, turning elections into zero-sum ethnic censuses where voting against the dominant ethnic party is portrayed as an act of treachery.
4.3. State-Sanctioned Othering: Government-Sponsored Hate Speech and Propaganda
A key instrument of the EPMT is the use of state power to define and stigmatize an “other.” This is frequently achieved through government-sponsored hate speech, where state officials, ruling party members, and their surrogates use public platforms to portray specific ethnic groups as existential threats to the dominant group’s political control. This rhetoric often employs the language of indigeneity, casting targeted groups as “settlers” or “outsiders” whose political and economic aspirations are illegitimate. A crucial enabling factor is the impunity with which such speech is delivered. Despite the existence of legal frameworks like the Electoral Act that prohibit such conduct, partisan control over security agencies and regulatory bodies ensures that influential perpetrators are rarely, if ever, prosecuted.
This official rhetoric is amplified by a broader ecosystem of propaganda and disinformation, often disseminated through social media and online forums by ethnic nationalist activists. These campaigns construct and reinforce narratives that paint the targeted group as politically aggressive, culturally alien, or economically rapacious, thereby manufacturing public consent for their marginalization and persecution. Civil society organizations, such as the Centre for Information Technology and Development (CITAD), have documented a clear pattern of spikes in ethnic and religious hate speech that directly correlate with electoral cycles, confirming its use as a political tool.
4.4. The Erosion of Recourse: Judicial Complicity and Selective Justice
For ethno-political manipulation to be effective, legal avenues for recourse must be neutralized. The EPMT identifies judicial complicity as a critical component of the strategy. Political elites compromise the judiciary’s independence through several mechanisms: manipulating the judicial appointment process to install loyalists, offering material inducements such as cars and houses to create a system of dependency, and exerting direct pressure on judges to deliver politically favorable rulings. This is compounded by the executive branch’s frequent and flagrant disregard for court orders it finds inconvenient, which systematically undermines the authority and efficacy of the entire judicial system.
The outcome is a judiciary widely perceived by the public as corrupt, compromised, and an instrument of the ruling elite. This manifests in contradictory judgments in high-profile political cases, the predictable dismissal of election petitions filed by the opposition, and an overarching erosion of public trust in the rule of law. For ethnic groups targeted by state-sponsored persecution, this capture of the judiciary is particularly devastating. It closes off the most significant formal channel for seeking justice and protection, reinforcing their alienation and confirming the belief that the state’s institutions are aligned against them.
4.5. Coercion and Control: State-Sponsored Violence and Intimidation
The final instrument of the EPMT is the application of direct physical coercion. State-sponsored violence and intimidation are used to enforce the political will of the elite and suppress dissent, particularly during elections. This takes several forms, including the deployment of armed political thugs to intimidate and attack voters in opposition strongholds, the targeted arrests of opposition figures on spurious charges, and the strategic destruction of property belonging to communities deemed politically disloyal.
This violence is not random but is often state-condoned or directly state-sponsored. Security forces frequently exhibit partisan behavior, either by actively participating in the intimidation of voters or by deliberately failing to intervene while allied thugs operate with impunity. This direct link between the state’s coercive apparatus and the suppression of political opposition along ethnic lines is a core tenet of the EPMT, demonstrating that the state itself becomes a tool for enforcing the manipulated ethnic hierarchy.
5. Empirical Validation: The “Lagos Igbo Question” as a Microcosm of EPMT
The “Lagos Igbo Question” provides a compelling case study for observing the Ethno-Political Manipulation Theory in action. As Nigeria’s commercial nerve center, Lagos is a cosmopolitan metropolis with a long history of attracting migrants from across the country. This has created a persistent tension between the claims of the “indigenous” Yoruba population and the presence of large, economically successful “settler” communities, most notably the Igbo. This dynamic is a potent resource for political elites, who exploit the politics of indigeneity by framing Igbo economic influence and growing political assertiveness as a direct threat to Yoruba control of the state’s resources and political destiny. The state government has even resorted to the internal deportation of destitute individuals to their “states of origin,” an exclusionary policy that reinforces these ethnic boundaries.
The 2023 general elections served as a critical flashpoint, triggering a full-scale deployment of EPMT tactics. In the presidential election, the Labour Party candidate, Peter Obi, an Igbo man, secured a shocking victory in Lagos State, a traditional stronghold of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). This outcome, largely attributed to the unified voting bloc of Igbo residents and disaffected youths, was perceived by the APC establishment as an existential threat to their decades-long dominance. The response, in the weeks leading up to the gubernatorial election, was a textbook application of the EPMT.
Evidence of the theory’s core factors was widespread and extensively documented:
- Government-Sponsored Hate Speech: A concerted campaign was launched to frame the gubernatorial election as a battle to “reclaim” Lagos from an impending “Igbo takeover.” Influential political figures and their surrogates openly propagated this narrative. This echoed past incidents, such as the 2015 threat by the Oba of Lagos, a prominent traditional ruler, that Igbos who failed to vote for the APC candidate would “perish in the lagoon”. Traditional rulers, who are key partners in governance, often play a crucial role in legitimizing and amplifying such divisive rhetoric at the grassroots level.
- State-Sponsored Violence and Intimidation: On election day, there were numerous credible reports of targeted voter suppression in Igbo-dominated areas such as Oshodi, Surulere, and Eti-Osa. Political thugs, operating with apparent impunity, blocked access to polling units, destroyed ballot boxes, and physically assaulted voters perceived to be supporting the opposition Labour Party. The selective inaction of security forces in these areas was widely noted, suggesting state complicity in the disenfranchisement of a specific ethnic bloc.
- Targeted Economic Sabotage: The political targeting of the Igbo community is often accompanied by economic attacks. The destruction of Igbo-owned businesses and the demolition of markets heavily populated by Igbo traders, such as the Alaba International Market, during politically charged periods serve as a powerful instrument of control. This is not merely collateral damage from electoral chaos; it is a calculated form of economic warfare. Given the stereotype of Igbos’ “prominence and dominance in industry and commerce,” attacking their economic base is a direct strategy to punish political dissent and weaken their capacity for collective political action. The sequence of events—political threats for electoral choices followed by the destruction of economic assets—establishes a clear punitive link, validating a key component of the EPMT.
- Judicial and State Inaction: In the aftermath of the election, the widespread and well-documented instances of violence, hate speech, and voter intimidation resulted in few, if any, significant arrests or prosecutions. This lack of accountability serves as clear evidence of state and judicial complicity, confirming the EPMT’s assertion that legal recourse is systematically denied to targeted communities, thereby entrenching the cycle of impunity.
6. The Ethnic Polarization Cycle: A Repeatable Model of Power Consolidation
The tactics deployed by the political elite are not arbitrary but follow a predictable, repeatable pattern synchronized with the electoral calendar. The EPMT models this as the “Ethnic Polarization Cycle,” a four-stage process designed to manufacture an ethnic crisis, exploit it for electoral gain, and then manage its aftermath to ensure its availability for future use. This cycle explains why ethno-political tensions in Nigeria predictably escalate in the lead-up to elections and recede afterward, without ever being fully resolved.
The cycle unfolds as follows:
- Stage 1: Pre-Election Period (Mobilization Phase): In the months leading up to an election, political elites and their media surrogates begin to actively stoke ethnic fears. They revive historical grievances, disseminate disinformation through social media, and frame the upcoming contest as an existential threat to their ethnic group’s survival and interests. Hate speech becomes more frequent and explicit, designed to polarize the electorate and consolidate an “us vs. them” mentality.
- Stage 2: Election Period (Coercion Phase): The inflammatory rhetoric of the pre-election phase is translated into direct action. The primary objective shifts from mobilization to controlling the vote. This is achieved through the targeted deployment of violence and intimidation in opposition strongholds, voter suppression, ballot box snatching, and the manipulation of electoral materials by partisan officials and security forces.
- Stage 3: Post-Election Period (Consolidation Phase): After the election, the narrative is reshaped to legitimize the actions taken and consolidate power. An electoral victory is framed as a successful defense of the ethnic homeland against hostile outsiders. Political patronage is then distributed to reward loyalist groups and individuals, while communities and ethnic groups that supported the opposition are systematically sidelined from government appointments and economic opportunities, reinforcing the costs of political disloyalty.
- Stage 4: Mid-Term Period (Latency Phase): During the inter-election years, open hostilities are allowed to subside to create a veneer of normal governance. However, the underlying ethnic tensions are deliberately kept simmering. This is achieved through subtle but persistent discriminatory policies, divisive rhetoric on tangential issues, and the refusal to pursue reconciliation or justice for past wrongs. This ensures that the embers of ethnic resentment remain alive, ready to be fanned into flames for the next political cycle.
The strategic logic of this cycle is visualized in Table 1, which breaks down the objectives, tactics, and outcomes of each phase.
Table 1: The Ethnic Polarization Cycle in Nigerian Elections
| Phase | Primary Objective | Key Tactics | Target Audience | Expected Outcome |
| Pre-Election | Ethnic Mobilization & Polarization | – Revival of historical grievances (e.g., Civil War narratives) – Hate speech by political surrogates and officials – Disinformation campaigns on social media (e.g., “takeover” plots) | In-group ethnic base | Solidify core support; create fear and distrust of the “other” |
| Election | Voter Suppression & Result Control | – Targeted violence and intimidation by political thugs – Destruction of electoral materials in opposition areas – Partisan behavior by security forces – Vote buying | Opposition-aligned ethnic communities | Depress voter turnout in opposition strongholds; ensure victory |
| Post-Election | Legitimation & Power Consolidation | – Rewriting narratives to justify election tactics – Rewarding loyalist groups with political patronage – Economic and political marginalization of opposition groups | Entire polity | Reinforce dominance; punish dissent; entrench ethnic hierarchy |
| Mid-Term | Maintenance of Latent Hostility | – Subtle discriminatory policies – Allowing unresolved grievances to fester – Occasional inflammatory rhetoric on minor issues | Entire polity | Keep ethnic tensions simmering for future mobilization |
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7. Consequences for Democratic Consolidation and National Cohesion
The systematic application of the EPMT carries devastating consequences for Nigeria’s political and economic health, actively undermining the very foundations of democratic governance and national unity.
First, it leads to deepened ethnic polarization. The constant cycle of fear-mongering and inter-group conflict hardens ethnic identities at the expense of a shared national consciousness. It makes cross-ethnic political alliances difficult to forge and sustain, fosters deep-seated mistrust between communities, and ultimately hinders the project of national integration. Politics becomes a perpetual battle of ethnic interests, eroding the potential for a unified Nigerian citizenry.
Second, the strategy causes profound democratic erosion. By transforming elections from contests of ideas and performance into tribal censuses, the EPMT subverts the core principles of democratic accountability. When leaders are chosen based on ethnic loyalty rather than competence or integrity, the quality of governance inevitably declines. This, in turn, fuels the political apathy and disillusionment that makes the strategy so effective, creating a vicious cycle of decay. Citizenship is devalued, and faith in the democratic process is corroded.
Third, the EPMT inflicts significant economic fragmentation and disinvestment. The targeted destruction of businesses and markets, as seen in Lagos, not only ruins individual livelihoods but also disrupts vital local economies and discourages the cross-ethnic commercial integration that is essential for national economic development. More broadly, the climate of instability, violence, and political risk created by the cycle deters both foreign and domestic investment. Empirical analysis shows that rising insecurity in Nigeria has a significant negative impact on foreign direct investment, domestic capital formation, and overall economic growth, as capital is diverted to less volatile environments.
Finally, the cycle results in severe global image damage. A nation perpetually embroiled in ethno-political conflict is perceived on the international stage as unstable, unpredictable, and high-risk. This tarnishes Nigeria’s reputation, undermines its diplomatic standing, and reduces its ability to attract the global partnerships and investments needed for sustainable development.
8. Conclusion: Implications of the EPMT for Nigeria’s Political Future
This article has introduced and provided an empirical validation of the Ethno-Political Manipulation Theory (EPMT), a framework that explains the persistence of ethnic conflict and democratic fragility in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. The theory posits that ethnic polarization is not an accidental feature of the political landscape but a calculated strategy of elite power consolidation. By analyzing the core instruments of manipulation—political rascality, the weaponization of history, state-sponsored hate speech, judicial complicity, and targeted violence—and modeling their deployment through the repeatable “Ethnic Polarization Cycle,” this study demonstrates the systematic nature of this political project. The case study of the “Lagos Igbo Question” during the 2023 elections serves as a powerful microcosm, illustrating how these tools are deployed in a real-world context to suppress opposition and enforce an ethnicized political order.
The primary theoretical contribution of the EPMT is its synthesis of existing concepts of elite theory, prebendalism, and identity politics into a dynamic and predictive model. It moves the analysis beyond static descriptions of ethnic division to a causal framework that links elite behavior, weak institutions, and the electoral calendar to explain the cyclical waxing and waning of ethno-political conflict. This framework offers significant explanatory power for understanding the politics of other ethnically plural societies facing similar challenges of democratic consolidation.
Breaking this destructive cycle requires more than generic appeals for national unity; it demands targeted institutional reforms aimed at raising the costs and reducing the benefits of ethno-political manipulation. Based on the analysis presented, the following policy recommendations are crucial for Nigeria’s political future:
- Strengthening Judicial Independence: The complicity of the judiciary is a key enabler of the EPMT. Reforms must focus on insulating the judicial appointment process, particularly at the National Judicial Council (NJC), from executive and political interference. This includes transparent, merit-based selection criteria and security of tenure for judges to empower them to act without fear or favor.
- Enforcing Electoral and Hate Speech Laws: Impunity for political rascality must end. This requires empowering institutions like the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and human rights commissions to independently investigate and prosecute political actors, regardless of party affiliation, who engage in hate speech, incite violence, or orchestrate electoral malpractice. Consistent enforcement of existing laws would significantly increase the political risk of deploying EPMT tactics.
- Promoting Security Sector Reform: The neutrality of the police and military is paramount for democratic credibility. Reforms should focus on professionalization, non-partisan leadership appointments, and robust civilian oversight mechanisms to ensure that security forces protect all citizens equally during elections, rather than serving the interests of the incumbent regime.
- Empowering Civil Society Oversight: Independent civil society organizations play a vital role in monitoring, documenting, and exposing the instruments of ethno-political manipulation. The international community and domestic stakeholders should increase financial and technical support for these groups, particularly those focused on hate speech monitoring, election observation, and judicial accountability, while ensuring their legal protection from government harassment.
Ultimately, dismantling the mechanisms of the EPMT is fundamental to the survival and maturation of Nigeria’s democracy. Until the political system is re-engineered to reward performance over polarization, the nation will likely remain trapped in a cycle of manufactured conflict that stifles its immense potential.
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