Korie,M(2025) Echoes of 2023: Ethno-Political Manipulation as the Dominant Variable in Nigeria’s 2027 Electoral Calculus,Journal of Connected Knowledge, Vol. [1], Issue 4
Abstract
As Nigeria approaches its 2027 general elections, the political landscape is being defined not by policy debates but by the lingering traumas and strategic lessons of the 2023 electoral cycle. This article argues that the tactics of Ethno-Political Manipulation (EPM), which reached a zenith in 2023, are now the primary framework shaping the forthcoming contest. Amidst severe economic hardship, escalating insecurity, and a deeply fragmented populace, political elites are intensifying their reliance on identity-based mobilization, hate speech, and state-sponsored intimidation to consolidate power. This study analyzes the current political environment, examining how governance failures under the Tinubu administration are creating fertile ground for ethnic scapegoating. It further investigates the early political realignments and the role of social media in amplifying divisive narratives. The findings indicate that the pre-election phase of the “Ethnic Polarization Cycle” is already underway, suggesting that the 2027 elections are poised to be a more volatile and contentious iteration of the last, posing a significant threat to Nigeria’s democratic stability and national cohesion.
1. The Post-2023 Political Terrain: A Landscape of Grievance and Distrust
The 2023 general elections left an indelible scar on Nigeria’s democratic psyche, creating a political environment characterized by profound grievance and institutional distrust that now forms the bedrock for the 2027 contest. The electoral process was marred by widespread violence, voter intimidation, and allegations of rigging, which have deepened the rifts among ethnic and religious groups (Onubogu, 2025; Adeyemi, 2023). This was particularly acute in urban centers like Lagos, where targeted suppression of Igbo voters was widely reported, reinforcing a narrative of political exclusion and ethnic persecution that continues to fester (Onebunne & Eche, 2023; GIS Reports, 2024). The aftermath has been a significant erosion of public faith in the electoral system, with a 2022 survey revealing that 66% of Nigerians feel the country is “much more divided” than it was just five years prior (API Social Cohesion Survey, 2022). This disillusionment fuels a dangerous cycle of voter apathy, which paradoxically empowers elite manipulation by lowering the threshold for victory and making the mobilization of a passionate, identity-driven minority a more viable strategy than building broad, issue-based consensus (CNBC Africa, 2025; Chatham House, 2025).
2. Economic Hardship as a Catalyst for Ethnic Scapegoating
The severe economic pressures under the current administration have created a volatile social climate, making the populace more susceptible to the divisive tactics of ethno-political manipulation. Since 2023, President Bola Tinubu’s “harsh neoliberal policies,” including the removal of fuel subsidies and currency liberalization, have precipitated a severe cost-of-living crisis, decimating the middle class and pushing millions deeper into poverty (Falana, 2025; Akinmoju, 2024). With inflation soaring to its highest levels since 1996 and food prices rising by over 40% in a single year, widespread public discontent has become a significant threat to the ruling elite (NBS, 2024; IMF, 2024). To deflect blame from these governance failures, political actors are increasingly resorting to ethnic scapegoating, a classic EPMT strategy. This is already manifesting in Lagos, where recent local government officials have begun renaming streets bearing Igbo names, a move described as a “calculated political maneuver rooted in resentment” from the 2023 elections (Babafemi, 2025). Such actions amplify dangerous narratives that Igbos are “taking over,” effectively channeling economic frustrations into ethnic animosity and setting a perilous stage for 2027 (Onubogu, 2025).
3. The Godfatherism-Impunity Complex: Entrenching the EPMT Framework
The machinery of ethno-political manipulation is powered by a deeply entrenched system of “godfatherism,” which ensures that the instruments of division are deployed with near-total impunity, a reality that is solidifying ahead of 2027. Political godfathers—powerful elites who operate outside formal state structures—exert immense control over the democratic process by handpicking candidates, financing campaigns, and orchestrating electoral malpractice, including violence and voter intimidation (Quest Journals, 2024; Adebisi, 2022). This system thrives by weakening key democratic institutions; the judiciary is compromised through manipulated appointments and material inducements, while security forces are often co-opted to protect allied political thugs rather than the electorate (Yacubu & Muhammad, 2025; Adeyemi, 2023). The failure to hold anyone accountable for the well-documented ethnic-based violence and hate speech of the 2023 elections has sent a clear signal that such tactics are not only permissible but are an effective and consequence-free tool for power retention. This normalization of impunity guarantees that the same, if not more aggressive, strategies of coercion and division will be central to the political playbook for the 2027 electoral cycle (Chatham House, 2025).
4. Early Maneuvers for 2027: The Ethnic Polarization Cycle in Motion
With more than two years remaining until the polls, the initial stages of the Ethnic Polarization Cycle are already visible as political elites begin maneuvering for the 2027 elections. The incumbent president, Bola Tinubu, has been endorsed by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) for a second term, effectively firing the starting gun for the campaign (Reuters, 2025). In response, a “National Opposition Coalition Group” has been formed, uniting figures from the Labour Party, the SDP, and disaffected members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in an effort to present a unified front against what many fear is a drift towards a one-party state (CNBC Africa, 2025; AP News, 2025). However, these realignments are already being framed through an ethnic lens. Dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration is growing among some Northern elites, while in Lagos, the post-2023 resentment has led to provocative actions against the Igbo community (Babafemi, 2025). This early revival of historical grievances and the framing of political opposition in regional and ethnic terms demonstrate that the pre-election mobilization phase of the EPMT cycle is actively underway, priming the electorate for another divisive and identity-driven contest.
5. Social Media: The Digital Accelerator of Hate and Division
The proliferation of hate speech and disinformation on social media has become a critical accelerant for ethno-political manipulation, a trend that is poised to intensify significantly in the lead-up to 2027. Digital platforms like WhatsApp, X (formerly Twitter), and Instagram have become the primary battlegrounds where divisive narratives are forged and disseminated with alarming speed and minimal regulation (Popoola et al., 2025; AJPSSI, 2025). Research indicates that ethnic and religious grievances, fueled by economic frustrations and perceptions of unequal representation, are the primary motivators for hate speech online (Popoola et al., 2025). During the 2023 elections, these platforms were used to spread inflammatory content targeting specific ethnic groups, such as the narrative that an Igbo victory would lead to a “takeover” of Lagos (Adeyemi, 2023). Despite existing legal frameworks like the Cybercrimes Act of 2015, enforcement is weak and often misused against political dissent, creating an environment where hate speech flourishes with impunity (Ibe et al., 2025). This unregulated digital landscape allows political actors to bypass traditional media and directly inject toxic, polarizing content into the public discourse, making social media a potent and dangerous tool for executing the EPMT strategy.
6. Conclusion: A Precarious Path to 2027
The political trajectory toward Nigeria’s 2027 general elections is being dangerously shaped by the unresolved conflicts of the past, amplified by present crises. The tactics of ethno-political manipulation are not merely a residual problem but have become the central, organizing principle for political competition. The deep-seated grievances from the flawed 2023 elections, coupled with crippling economic hardship and a pervasive culture of impunity, have created a perfect storm for the cyclical weaponization of identity. Early political maneuvers, from coalition formations to localized ethnic provocations, confirm that the EPMT playbook is already in effect. As political actors increasingly turn to hate speech and fear-mongering to distract from their governance failures, the risk of a more violent and fragmented election in 2027 grows daily. Without urgent and robust institutional reforms—particularly strengthening judicial independence and ensuring the impartial enforcement of electoral laws—Nigeria risks a catastrophic escalation of conflict that could undermine its democratic foundations and threaten its very national cohesion (Quest Journals, 2024; Meri, 2025; Yacubu & Muhammad, 2025).
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